In the face of Israel’s far-reaching strikes Friday, it’s not clear that Iran – its longtime foe – has the capacity to muster the furious response that might be expected.
Israel has once again demonstrated it is the pre-eminent military and intelligence power in the Middle East, heedless to civilian casualties and the diplomatic impact of its actions on its allies.
As with their remarkable operation to decapitate their northern opponent – the Iranian proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah – the overnight operation has the hallmarks of months or even years of preparation. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have been faced with using this capability now, or losing it, as diplomacy kicked in during a sixth round of nuclear talks scheduled for this weekend between the United States and Iran in Oman.
Iran is now left counting its far-reaching wounds. Images from across Tehran show apartment blocks hit, it seems, in specific rooms – suggesting the pinpoint targeting of individuals, likely through tracking cellphones. Iran has lost its top three active-duty commanders, as well as a leading voice in nuclear talks, overnight, but as the dust clears it may emerge more have been hit, and the survivors will likely be concerned they, too, could still be targeted.
This will slow and complicate any Iranian response. As will the damage the Iranians continue to sustain. A raid by Israel in October took out a large tranche of Iran’s air defenses. Israel’s military said Friday that it had destroyed dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers in strikes by fighter jets on aerial defense arrays in western Iran. The Iranian atomic energy agency confirmed that the nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz had also been damaged, but it’s not yet clear to what extent.
In the days ahead, Israel’s superior intelligence apparatus will search for targets of opportunity – commanders and equipment changing location, or the movement of materiel to facilitate a response – and continue to strike.
Such a wide-ranging assault was possible only because Hezbollah – Iran’s second-strike capability if their nuclear apparatus was hit – had been dismantled over a ruthless but effective months-long campaign last summer. This is beginning to look like a months-long Israeli plan to remove a regional threat.
The risks remain high. Iran could now try to race for the nuclear bomb. But its faltering defenses and clear, humiliating infiltration by Israel’s intelligence, make that a long shot. Rushing to build a nuclear weapon is no simple task, especially under fire, with your key leadership at risk of pinpoint strikes. Netanyahu may have calculated that the risk of an Iranian nuclear breakout was depleted, and manageable with yet more military might.
There is another victim of the overnight barrage: the Trump administration’s standing as a geopolitical power.
There may be suggestions from Trump advocates in the hours ahead that the Israeli assault was part of a wider masterplan to weaken Iran ahead of more diplomacy. But, in reality, a simpler truth is revealed: Israel had no trust in the United States to implement a deal with Iran that would remove its nuclear ambitions.
Despite public pleading by US President Donald Trump for it to hold off, Israel went ahead with the most significant attack on Iran since its war with Iraq in the 1980s. Israel neither cared for or feared Trump’s response, and is apparently prepared to risk fighting on without US support.
That is perhaps another indictment of Iran’s ability to respond now. Israel is less bothered by what it can do. Israel’s operation against Hezbollah provides reason for it to be confident (but also should stir anxieties about hubris and overreach). Israel has likely hit the vast majority of its key targets already, to maximize the advantage of surprise, and the extent of that damage will take days to be revealed.
What of proliferation now? There is a lot that we do not know about Iran’s nuclear program. Israel may have known a lot more. But we are now in a binary moment where the strikes on the Natanz facility may either herald its end, or its race to completion – in the form of a nuclear weapon. Iran has always insisted its nuclear program is peaceful, but the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog on Thursday declared it in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, prompting Tehran to promise escalatory action.
In the moment of its greatest weakness, the Islamic Republic will struggle to project the regional swagger it has maintained for decades. It may feel it is unable to grasp diplomacy with the US as its way out, without looking even weaker. It appears unable to hit Israel back proportionately, so may look to strike asymmetrically, if possible.
In the immediate confusion, one basic fact is clear: Israel is acting in the Middle East now unimpeded by allies, unafraid of wider risks, and – at times brutally – seeking to alter regional dynamics for decades to come.
