{"id":143491,"date":"2026-04-15T14:12:24","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T14:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/daddyofincome.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/15\/is-bitcoins-bear-market-over-two-analyses-two-very-different-answers\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T14:12:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T14:12:24","slug":"is-bitcoins-bear-market-over-two-analyses-two-very-different-answers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/daddyofincome.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/15\/is-bitcoins-bear-market-over-two-analyses-two-very-different-answers\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Bitcoin\u2019s Bear Market Over? Two Analyses, Two Very Different Answers"},"content":{"rendered":"

The post Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Over? Two Analyses, Two Very Different Answers<\/a> appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News<\/a><\/p>\n

Bitcoin is trading at $74,025. Half the market sees a buying opportunity. The other half sees a temporary stop on the way to $30,000.<\/p>\n

Both sides have real data behind them.<\/p>\n

The Bear Case: The Bottom Is Not Here Yet<\/strong><\/h2>\n

CryptoQuant published analysis<\/a> this week showing Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score has not entered negative territory. Every single bear market bottom in Bitcoin’s history has required it to go below zero. Right now it sits at 0.5.<\/p>\n

Analyst Benjamin Cowen<\/a> put out a realistic bear framework on April 12 pointing to a 70% correction from the $126,000 October peak – implying a potential floor around $37,000-$38,000. CryptoQuant’s own target: $55,000-$60,000 by December 2026, followed by a two-year accumulation phase before the next halving cycle.<\/p>\n

Their argument is simple. The bear market has not finished its job yet.<\/p>\n

The Bull Case: The Debt Math Changes Everything<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Analyst Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe published a different framework today.<\/p>\n

His sigma analysis of every Bitcoin cycle shows bull markets and bear markets are getting weaker symmetrically. The 2024\/2025 bull peaked at just +1.5 sigma. The bear has already hit -1.5 sigma – the proportional level that historically marks the end of the correction.<\/p>\n

“The sigma-debt has already been paid off in the recent correction,”<\/em> he wrote.<\/a> The $30,000 thesis, he argues, applies the wrong historical framework to a cycle that has already structurally changed.<\/p>\n

Twelve months after reaching this sigma level, Bitcoin has historically averaged gains of 100-140%.<\/p>\n

James Lavish, co-manager of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and a 30-year Wall Street veteran, made a separate case entirely on Milk Road.<\/p>\n

His argument has nothing to do with charts. The US carries $39 trillion in debt heading toward $100 trillion by the mid-2030s. There are four ways to manage it – cut spending, raise taxes, default, or print money. <\/p>\n

\n

“They have no choice but to come in with fire hoses of liquidity,”<\/em> Lavish said. <\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

More money in the system means higher asset prices. It always has. He expects Bitcoin near $125,000 by year end and $150,000 next year.<\/p>\n

What the Market Is Doing Right Now<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Bitcoin sits at $74,025, down 0.25% in 24 hours. The altcoin fear and greed index has been below 10 for longer than any period in history.<\/p>\n

Two analytical frameworks. Two completely different conclusions. The data is real on both sides – which makes the next move matter more than most.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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